Video poker odds: every hand, exactly
Most odds tables online are copied from somewhere else. These were computed by our own solver — every one of the 2,598,960 possible deals, played optimally, every draw enumerated. The totals reproduce the published 99.5439% return to seven decimals, which is how you know the rest of the table is right.
The odds of every final hand — 9/6 Jacks or Better, optimal play
Read the right column closely — it’s the anatomy of the game. Nearly 70% of your return arrives as trips, two pair, and high pairs: small, constant pays. The royal is famous, but it’s only 2% of the long-run return; quads together are about 6%. That structure is why video poker sessions feel steady compared to slots, and why the two machines are opposite propositions.
The royal cycle: 1 in 40,391 — played, not dealt
Two different questions hide inside “what are the odds of a royal?” Being dealt a pat royal is pure combinatorics: 4 royals among 2,598,960 deals = 1 in 649,740. Finishing with a royal while playing correct strategy — holding the right partial draws hand after hand — happens once per 40,391 hands. That’s the “royal cycle.” At 600 hands an hour it averages one royal per 67 hours of play; and because each hand is independent, you can run a full cycle without one — the probability of a royal-free cycle is about 37%. Neither machine nor player is ever “due.”
Why five coins, in one exact number
The royal’s 2.0% share of return assumes the 800-per-coin jackpot, which only exists at max bet. At one to four coins the royal pays 250 per coin — the same hit frequency suddenly carries 69% less value, costing roughly 1.4% of total return before the strategy even adjusts. It’s the single most expensive button on the machine: the full mistake list.
You win something 45.5% of the time (sort of)
Under optimal play, 45.5% of hands end in a paying combination — but almost half of those are a single high pair returning exactly your bet. Genuine profit on a hand (two pair or better) happens about 24% of the time. Knowing this in advance is the inoculation against tilt: a night of “nothing but pairs” isn’t a broken machine, it’s the table above doing exactly what it says. For what these odds mean for your wallet across a session, see bankroll & variance.
Double Bonus: same method, different shape
On 10/7 Double Bonus the same enumeration gives a royal every 48,048 hands (optimal DB play breaks fewer pairs for royal draws), four aces every 5,030 hands carrying 3.2% of the return, and all quads combined about once per 429 hands — 15.4% of the game’s return, versus 6% on Jacks or Better. That quad-heavy shape is where the over-100% return lives, and it’s why aces full gets broken for the three aces there and nowhere else.
Check any of it yourself
Every number here comes from the same engine that runs our free tools — the methodology page shows how the enumeration is verified. Pick any five cards and the analyzer will show the exact category-by-category odds for every possible hold, live in your browser.
Open the hand analyzer — exact odds per hold →Related: what EV means · the strategy chart these odds assume · classic hand dilemmas, answered exactly. 18+, training only.