VIDEO POKER PALEV TRAINER
ORIGINAL RESEARCH · EXACT, NOT SIMULATED

What the “simple strategy” really costs

Every video poker book teaches a short ordered list for 9/6 Jacks or Better and calls the gap to optimal 'small'. We measured it exactly — every one of the 2,598,960 possible deals, solved — and then found the cheapest way to close half of it.

The headline numbers

StrategyExact returnGap vs optimal
Optimal computer play99.5439%
Classic 16-line simple strategy99.4593%0.0846% ≈ one bet per 5,900 hands
Simple+ (18 lines, ours)99.5003%0.0362% ≈ one bet per 11,500 hands

Method: instead of simulating, we enumerated. All 2,598,960 deals collapse to 134,459 suit-equivalence classes; each was solved exactly (all 32 holds, every draw counted), and a “list player” — first matching line wins — was scored against the solver. The same enumeration reproduces the published 99.5439% optimal return to seven decimals, which doubles as an end-to-end proof of the evaluator.

Where the 0.085% actually lives

Best play the list missesExact costExample deal
4 to an inside straight with 3-4 high cards (incl. A-K-Q-J)0.0249%9♣ J♣ Q♦ K♥ A♠
Junk 3-to-a-straight-flush held over a lone high card0.0203%2♣ 3♣ 6♣ + J♥
3-to-SF with a high card under-ranked vs 2 suited high0.0174%9♦ J♦ Q♦ + A♥
Nine smaller patterns0.0220%

Three patterns carry three quarters of the loss. Ablation confirms every one of the 16 classic lines earns its place (removing any costs 0.02%–13.6%), and the classic ordering is near-perfect — the leak is what the list doesn’t say, not what it says.

The two lines that close half the gap

Testing ten candidate lines at every possible position (exactly — a per-hand line-EV matrix makes any chart variation scoreable in milliseconds), two additions dominate the ROI table:

Added lineExact gainCumulative return
4 to an inside straight, 3+ high cards (folds in A-K-Q-J)+0.0249%99.484%
Split '3 to a straight flush' by high card (with → up, without → down)+0.0161%99.500%
A separate A-K-Q-J line (rejected: not worth a slot)+0.0043%
J-10 suited split (rejected: not worth a slot)+0.0031%

The residual 0.036% is provably unreachable by any flat pattern list — it lives in penalty-card contexts, which is exactly why “full” professional charts stop being simple. Eighteen lines is where the simplicity-vs-return curve bends.

Try it

The Simple+ chart is what the trainer teaches, line by line. The classic miss this study found:

A-K-Q-J unsuited — see why all four beat any two

Or drill hands with exact-EV feedback — the trainer names the chart line you missed on every mistake. Related: the Double Bonus chart study · the classic dilemmas, answered exactly.